Good morning. It's Father's Day, and the real decision isn't brunch versus a flag, it's Hard Rock Stadium versus a bar versus your own couch, and tickets are expensive enough that the couch should win on pure math, except stadiums keep selling out anyway. FIFA's mandatory water breaks are officially for player hydration and unofficially the four commercial breaks every broadcaster needs to sell per half. Telemundo, to their eternal credit, never once cuts away.
THE 1% RULE SNAPSHOT · 🏆 Karim's Top 3 Multifamily Picks
Scored from 480 eligible listings. Rate assumption: 7.095% (6.47% 30-yr + 0.625% investment premium). Down: 25%. Expenses: 35%.
📍 3040 NW 93rd St — Miami, FL 33147
💵 $849,995 | 🏠 Triplex (3 units) | 💰 Est. Rent: $9,500/mo
✅ 1.12% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ≈ $1,893/mo
Three units in the West Little River corridor for under $850K. The rent estimate works out to roughly $3,166 per unit, which is on the higher end for this zip, so verify current comps in MLS before locking in the number. If the rent holds, the ratio and cash flow both clear comfortably.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A12039482)
📍 450 NW 40th Ct — Miami, FL 33126
💵 $760,000 | 🏠 Fourplex (4 units) | 💰 Est. Rent: $8,100/mo
✅ 1.07% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ≈ $1,436/mo
Four units in Flagami at $190K per door. This is the kind of unit count and price point that's getting harder to find west of the Palmetto. Solid ratio, solid cash flow, nothing exotic about the numbers, which is exactly the point.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A12019766)
📍 2300 NW 20 St — Fort Lauderdale, FL 33311
💵 $495,000 | 🏠 Triplex (3 units) | 💰 Est. Rent: $5,700/mo
✅ 1.15% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ≈ $1,211/mo
The strongest ratio of the three, and it's in Broward under $500K. Northwest Fort Lauderdale has been one of the more overlooked corridors in the county, and three units at this price point with a 1.15% ratio is not a combination you see often anymore.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A12017112)
🏙️ Karim's Top 3 Condo Picks
Rate: 6.3% | Down: 25% | Expenses: 20% (HOA included in cash flow figures below)
Update from last issue: every condo pick last time showed negative cash flow once HOA was factored in. This issue, all three picks below are cash flow positive. Worth noting since it doesn't happen often in this market. HOA is still the main cost to underwrite carefully, but this round it didn't sink the numbers.
📍 4195 N Haverhill Rd Unit#307 — West Palm Beach, FL 33417
💵 $165,000 | 🛏️ 1bd/1ba | 💰 Est. Rent: $1,844/mo | 🏢 HOA: $669/mo
✅ 1.12% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ~$40/mo
The cheapest entry point in this issue's picks, and it still clears 1%. Three building comps support the rent estimate, which is the minimum threshold we use, so this is one to double-check in the REVIEW sheet before committing. Barely cash flow positive, but positive.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A12003046)
📍 185 SW 7th St Unit#3900 — Miami, FL 33130
💵 $325,000 | 🛏️ Studio (0bd/1ba) | 💰 Est. Rent: $3,360/mo | 🏢 HOA: $572/mo
✅ 1.03% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ~$607/mo
A Brickell studio at 1.03% with over $600/mo in cash flow is a genuinely good number for this submarket. Four building comps back the rent estimate, but $3,360/mo for a studio is on the high side, so it's worth a quick sanity check against current building activity before you move on it.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A12029083)
📍 90 Alton Rd Unit#807 — Miami Beach, FL 33139
💵 $695,000 | 🛏️ 1bd/1ba | 💰 Est. Rent: $7,163/mo | 🏢 HOA: $1,039/mo
✅ 1.03% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ~$1,465/mo
The best cash flow of the three, and it's South Beach. Five building comps support the estimate. We featured a different unit in this same building a few months back, and the rent profile here is consistent with what we saw then, which is a good sign for the comp quality.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A11942619)
📊 South Florida Market — May 2026
Source: MIAMI REALTORS®
| Market | Type | Median Price | ∆ YoY | Months Supply | Days to Contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | SFH | $680,000 | +0.7% | 5.2 | 41 |
| Miami-Dade | Condos | $415,000 | -2.4% | 12.9 | 64 |
| Broward | SFH | $630,000 | +0.8% | 4.5 | 35 |
| Palm Beach | SFH | $675,000 | +5.5% | 4.1 | 40 |
🧠 What It Means for Investors: Miami-Dade condo prices are down 2.4% year-over-year, the first real price softness we've seen in that segment in a while, while single-family prices across all three counties are still grinding higher. Palm Beach SFH leads at +5.5%. The split is the story: condo softness is a buyer's opportunity if you can underwrite the HOA risk, while SFH and multifamily continue to hold value in a market where new supply isn't keeping pace with population growth.
🌍 The World Cup Is Quietly Juicing Miami's Rental Market
Photo: Pexels
Miami short-term rental rates are up 54% to 118% year-over-year on match days, depending on the property and the matchup, according to AirDNA data. Deloitte separately projects roughly 31,000 visitors will book Airbnbs in Miami over the course of the full tournament. About 37% of Miami's listings are booked so far for the group stage, per AirDNA, which means there's still room for owners to capture demand as the bracket tightens and travel plans firm up.
This isn't a multifamily story in the traditional sense, but it's relevant to anyone holding a unit with flexible lease terms or a legal short-term rental permit near Hard Rock Stadium or South Beach. A single match week at a 50%+ rate premium can be worth more than a month of standard rent. The catch is the same one that always applies to STR: platform fees, turnover costs, and Miami-Dade's permitting rules eat into the upside, and it's temporary by definition. The tournament runs through mid-July. After that, the premium goes away and the underlying rental fundamentals are what's left.
🏗️ A $3 Billion Little Haiti Project Just Came Back From the Dead
Photo: Pexels
Ken Griffin's real estate ambitions in Miami just got bigger. A $3 billion mixed-use megaproject in Little Haiti that had been stalled is officially back, with Griffin's involvement reportedly supercharging the timeline. Little Haiti has been on investors' radar for years as the next neighborhood to absorb Wynwood-style capital, and a project at this scale, from a buyer with Griffin's balance sheet, is about as strong a signal as the market gets.
The investor angle: projects this size don't move comps overnight, but they do move expectations. If you own multifamily anywhere between Little Haiti and the Design District right now, a $3 billion anchor project two zip codes over changes how appraisers and buyers think about your rent roll over the next five years, even before a single unit delivers.
🏭 Real Estate Deal Volume Is Up $4 Billion This Year. Almost None of It Is Apartments.
Photo: Pexels
South Florida commercial real estate sales have topped $4 billion year-to-date, a number that sounds like a multifamily boom until you look at what's actually selling. Industrial and development-site transactions are driving the volume. Apartment building sales, by comparison, have cooled.
That's good news if you're a multifamily buyer, not bad news. Less competition for apartment deals means more negotiating room and less pressure to overpay just to win a bid. The institutional and 1031-exchange money chasing yield right now is parked in industrial and land assemblage. Multifamily, for the moment, is the quieter corner of the market, and quiet corners are where the better entry prices usually show up.
☕ The Fed Held. The Tone Was the Real News.
Photo: Pexels
The Fed held rates steady on June 16-17, which wasn't a surprise. What moved markets was the tone: officials signaled a possible hike later this year rather than the cut investors had been positioning for. The 30-year fixed sits at 6.47% as of June 18 per Freddie Mac's weekly survey, down slightly week over week but up from 6.81% a year ago, and daily rate trackers ticked higher immediately after the Fed's hawkish language.
For anyone underwriting deals on the assumption that rates fall meaningfully by year-end, that thesis just got pushed out further. The picks in this issue were scored at 7.095%, the real investment property rate available today, and they still clear the 1% bar and cash flow. That's the number to underwrite against, not a rate cut that may not show up in 2026 at all.
🎉 What's Happening in Miami This Weekend
Photo: Pexels
The World Cup has Miami's weekend, and it doesn't let go for another two weeks.
⚽ Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde — Today, June 21, 6 PM, Hard Rock Stadium. Cabo Verde's first-ever World Cup match. Egypt plays New Zealand the same night at 9 PM in Vancouver, which is the one I'll actually be watching.
⚾ Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants — Today, June 21, 1:40 PM, loanDepot Park. A normal baseball game on a weekend that is not normal.
🥁 Juvenile w/ The 400 Degreez Band — Today, June 21, 6 PM, Miami Beach Bandshell.
📺 World Cup watch parties: Argentina vs. Austria, Scotland vs. Brazil — Monday, June 22, Miami Beach Bandshell and E11EVEN Miami.
Coming up this week:
⚽ Scotland vs. Brazil — Wednesday, June 24, 6 PM, Hard Rock Stadium. The most-booked match in South Florida for this stage of the tournament.
⚽ Colombia vs. Portugal — Saturday, June 27, 7:30 PM, Hard Rock Stadium.
🎵 The Chainsmokers — Friday, June 26, DAER Nightclub, Davie.
🎵 Carín León — De Sonora Para El Mundo Tour — Sunday, June 28, 8 PM, Nu Stadium.
Until next time. If this issue landed in your inbox and made you look up a listing, forward it to one investor friend who should be reading this too.
Reply to this email if you want me to run the numbers on a specific address you're looking at. I do this every issue and I'll get back to you.
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