Good morning. The Dolphins host the Giants at Hard Rock Stadium today, 4 PM, first preseason game of the year. Same two cities, one football field. New York's going to need a bigger argument than that this week.
THE 1% RULE SNAPSHOT · 🏆 Karim's Top 3 Multifamily Picks
Rate assumption: 7.28% (6.65% 30-yr Freddie Mac + 0.625% investment premium). Down: 25%. Expenses: 35%.
📍 4381 Purdy Ln — Lake Worth, FL 33406
💵 $750,000 | 🏠 Triplex (3 units) | 💰 Est. Rent: $7,250/mo
✅ 0.97% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ≈ $864/mo
Lake Worth doesn't get the Miami-Dade headlines, but three units under $750K with cash flow north of $850/mo is the kind of number that's getting harder to find east of the Turnpike.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A11967277)
📍 530 NW 99th St — Miami, FL 33150
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💵 $665,000 | 🏠 Duplex (2 units) | 💰 Est. Rent: $6,000/mo
✅ 0.90% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ≈ $487/mo
A duplex in Little River at under $333K per door, in the highest-rated location this issue. The ratio sits under 1%, so this one leans on neighborhood trajectory as much as the raw math.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A12009577)
📍 1109 NW 6th Ave — Pompano Beach, FL 33060
💵 $1,015,000 | 🏠 Fourplex (4 units) | 💰 Est. Rent: $9,425/mo
✅ 0.93% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ≈ $918/mo
Four units in Broward for just over $250K a door, and the best cash flow of this issue's three picks. Fourplex inventory at this price point in Pompano has been thinning out fast.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A12058467)
🏙️ Karim's Top 3 Condo Picks
Rate: 7.28% | Down: 25% | Expenses: HOA + actual property tax + insurance
📍 2000 Metropica Way Unit#505 — Sunrise, FL 33323
💵 $310,000 | 🛏️ 1bd/1ba | 💰 Est. Rent: $3,345/mo | 🏢 HOA: $1,011/mo
✅ 1.08% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ~$50/mo
The best ratio of this issue's condo picks, in Sunrise's Metropica development. Cash flow is thin, so there isn't much room for error if the rent estimate runs even slightly high.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A11997308)
📍 140 S Dixie Hwy Unit#501 — Hollywood, FL 33020
💵 $300,000 | 🛏️ 3bd/2ba | 💰 Est. Rent: $3,132/mo | 🏢 HOA: $1,241/mo
✅ 1.04% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ~($331)/mo
Three bedrooms under $300K in Hollywood is a genuine find, but the HOA eats hard into the return and this one runs negative on cash flow once financed. A better fit for a buyer putting down more than 25%.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A12033922)
📍 16699 Collins Ave Unit#3604 — Sunny Isles Beach, FL 33160
💵 $1,039,000 | 🛏️ 2bd/2ba | 💰 Est. Rent: $9,928/mo | 🏢 HOA: $2,516/mo
✅ 0.96% Rule | 💵 Net Cash Flow: ~$771/mo
The only pick on this issue's condo list that's solidly cash flow positive once mortgage, HOA, taxes, and insurance are all accounted for. Sunny Isles oceanfront at just under $1.04M, and it still clears the 1% bar after every cost is counted.
🔗 View listing (MLS: A11900466)
📊 South Florida Market — July 2026
Source: MIAMI REALTORS®
| Market | Type | Median Price | ∆ YoY | Months Supply | Days to Contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | SFH | $685,000 | +3.8% | 4.8 | 45 |
| Miami-Dade | Condos | $400,000 | -1.5% | 12.0 | 86 |
| Broward | SFH | $650,000 | +4.8% | 4.5 | 34 |
| Palm Beach | SFH | $660,000 | +7.6% | 3.9 | 42 |
🧠 What It Means for Investors: Single-family: a seller's market, full stop. Condos are the opposite, 12 months of supply and the clearest buyer's market split we've seen in a while. Price multifamily deals off the tighter single-family supply. On any condo pick, let that same softness push you to scrutinize HOA and cash flow math harder.
☕ Miami Just Became More Expensive Than New York
Photo: Pexels
For years, the whole pitch for moving to Miami was that it wasn't New York. That pitch just expired, technically. A new Bloomberg analysis of 2024 government data found Miami-Dade's overall cost of living, the whole basket of housing, taxes, dining, and daily costs, has edged past greater New York's for the first time.
So is Miami actually pricier than New York now? Not rent-for-rent, no. New York's sticker-price rents are still higher than a comparable Miami apartment. Miami's costs just climbed faster, from a much lower starting point, until the total basket caught up. That speed is the real story.
Consumer prices here are up 36% since 2019, the worst increase in the country outside Tampa. Home prices have climbed 79% since the pandemic. Property taxes did a lot of that damage on their own, up 62% since 2019. Dinner costs more too: $94 here against $79 in New York.
The part that doesn't show up in the averages: Miami workers still earn about $1,000 less per year than the median American, even as the wave of recent transplants driving up prices averages $122,000 a year. Ken Griffin's $107 million estate purchase this year is the headline version of that gap. The quieter version is a longtime renter or worker watching the cost of everything catch up to New York while the paycheck doesn't.
🏭 A $109M Apartment Deal Near Zoo Miami, and the Seller Who Barely Broke Even
Photo: Pexels
Harbor Group International just paid $109 million for Emerald Palms, a 505-unit garden-style complex near Zoo Miami, working out to roughly $215,800 per unit. The seller, Dallas-based Milestone Group, bought the property for $107 million in July 2021, near the peak of the pandemic-era rush into Sun Belt real estate, when rents were spiking and money was cheap.
So did Milestone actually come out ahead? Barely, and only on paper. A $2 million gain on a $107 million purchase is close enough to a wash once five years of debt service, insurance, and property taxes are counted. Harbor Group assumed Milestone's existing $97 million Freddie Mac loan rather than originate new financing at today's rates. Even Harbor Group is managing around today's rates, not ignoring them.
📈 Mortgage Rates Just Fell for the Second Week in a Row
The 30-year fixed averaged 6.65% as of August 20th, per Freddie Mac's weekly survey, down from 6.67% the week before and the second straight weekly decline. It's still nowhere near the 5%-handle rates some buyers are holding out for. Does two weeks of decline actually mean anything? Maybe. Two straight weekly drops after a summer stuck near 6.7-6.9% is the first real crack in what's been a stubborn ceiling.
🧠 What It Means: For buyers, every quarter point matters more than it used to now that insurance and property tax have already eaten into margins. The picks in this issue were scored at 7.28% and still clear the 1% bar, so a trend that holds into September only makes tight deals easier, not harder.
💡 Still Budgeting Last Year's Insurance Premium? Stop.
Every multifamily and condo deal in Miami-Dade has been underwritten against the same assumption for four years straight: insurance only goes up. That assumption quietly stopped being true, and a lot of buyers are still running numbers as if it hasn't, which means they're passing on deals that actually pencil.
- Citizens Property Insurance approved an average 8.8% rate decrease for homeowners multiperil policies in 2026, its first meaningful cut after years of steady increases
- Florida's insurance regulator reports rates have actually fallen in 51 of the state's 67 counties so far this year, and 44 insurers have requested decreases since 2024 with another 48 requesting no increase at all
- If your underwriting model is still running a number from 2023 or 2024, get a fresh quote before you pass on a deal over expense-ratio math that's now out of date
Bottom line: Re-shop insurance on anything you already own. Then re-run the numbers on anything you passed on for insurance-cost reasons in the last two years.
🎉 What's Happening in Miami This Weekend
Photo: Pexels
Two stadiums, two sports, one Saturday.
🏈 Dolphins vs. Giants — Today, August 22, 4 PM, Hard Rock Stadium. First preseason game of the year, and the closest thing to a Miami-vs-New York rematch this week. Tickets here.
⚽ Inter Miami CF vs. Toronto FC — Today, August 22, 7:30 PM, Miami Freedom Park. Tickets here.
🎤 Don Toliver: Nitrous - Octane World Tour — Today, August 22, 7:30 PM, Kaseya Center. Event info here.
Until next time. If this issue landed in your inbox and made you look up a listing, forward it to one investor friend who should be reading this too.
Reply to this email if you want me to run the numbers on a specific address you're looking at. I do this every issue and I'll get back to you.
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