🎆Miami’s July 4th Forecast: Jets, Grills & $205M Land Deals

Good morning. We’re just days away from the annual tradition of celebrating America’s birthday by dodging roman candles in parking lots and pretending not to hear your neighbor light fireworks at 2am on a Wednesday.

Miami’s forecast? High chance of humidity, grilled meats, and at least one influencer filming a bikini reel next to a sparkler fountain.

Just a reminder: if you can’t see fireworks from your roof, it’s either time to move or befriend someone with a boat.

THE 1% RULE SNAPSHOT
🏆 Karim’s Top 3 Multifamily Picks

Trying something new this week — for the first time, I’m breaking down estimated monthly cash flow for each top pick. Numbers are great, but context is better.

Each scenario is based on:

• 25% down payment

• 6.9% interest rate (30-year fixed)

• 10% of rent allocated to maintenance

• Property taxes as reported

• Insurance estimated at $298/mo

📍 636 E 18th St – Hialeah
💵 $815,000 | 🏠 Duplex | 💰 Rent: $8,800/mo
✅ 1.08% Rule
Estimated Monthly Cash Flow: ~$2,847
Down Payment: $203,750 | Mortgage: $611,250
Breakdown: −$880 maintenance, −$4,025 mortgage, −$750 taxes, −$298 insurance
🔗 View listing

📍 1885 NE 53rd St – Pompano Beach
💵 $559,000 | 🏠 Duplex | 💰 Rent: $6,000/mo
✅ 1.07% Rule
Estimated Monthly Cash Flow: ~$1,196
Down Payment: $139,750 | Mortgage: $419,250
Breakdown: −$600 maintenance, −$2,761 mortgage, −$1,145 taxes, −$298 insurance
🔗 View listing

📍 2325 Hayes St – Hollywood
💵 $725,000 | 🏠 Triplex | 💰 Rent: $7,230/mo
✅ 1.00% Rule
Estimated Monthly Cash Flow: ~$1,870
Down Payment: $181,250 | Mortgage: $543,750
Breakdown: −$723 maintenance, −$3,581 mortgage, −$758 taxes, −$298 insurance
🔗 View listing

 📈MAY MARKET SNAPSHOT

Miami‑Dade Single‑Family Homes
• Closed sales fell 14.4% year‑over‑year (943 vs. 1,102)
• Median price rose 3.8% to $675K
• Active inventory jumped 44%, pushing months‑supply up to 6.6 (vs. 4.4)

Miami‑Dade Condos & Townhomes
• Sales dropped 25.1%
• Median price held at $425K
• Inventory up 39.5%; months‑supply rose to 14 (from 9)

Broward Single‑Family Homes
• Closed sales down 11.1%
• Median price flat at $625K
• Inventory climbed 34.5%, with months‑supply reaching 5.9 (from 4.3)

Broward Condos & Townhomes
• Sales fell 24%
• Median price dipped 2.5% to $275K
• Months‑supply up to 12.5 (from 7.6)

📎 Source: MiamiRealtors.com – May 2025 Stats

🧠 What This Means

May brought a clear cooldown in activity: sales are down, inventory is up, and sellers aren’t rushing to slash prices. In fact, many seem to be testing the market, only willing to sell at the right number—otherwise, they’ll just hold.

🏗️ INTER MIAMI’S $1B STADIUM TAKES SHAPE

After years of lawsuits, commission battles, and a voter referendum, Inter Miami’s Freedom Park is finally rising. The $1 billion, 25,000-seat stadium will replace the $60 million Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale — a serious upgrade in size and budget.

Cost per seat? Around $2,800 at Chase… closer to $40,000 at Freedom Park. Inflation hits different when Messi’s on payroll.

On the field, Inter Miami stunned the critics at the Club World Cup — taking down FC Porto and advancing to face European champions PSG. It’s the club’s biggest international stage yet, and they’re treating it like a title run, not a vacation.

Off the field, ticket prices skyrocketed after Messi joined — single games jumped from $29 to nearly $480. And while fans are bracing for new stadium pricing, demand hasn’t dropped.

For investors, this isn’t just about soccer. The surrounding development includes retail, hotel, and a 58-acre park — all of which could bring long-term upside to nearby areas like Allapattah and Grapeland Heights.

🏘️ KEY BISCAYNE WATERFRONT SELLS FOR $205M

Terra and Fortune International just paid $205 million for a 15.5-acre waterfront site in Key Biscayne — one of the largest land deals in Miami-Dade history.

The property, once home to the Silver Sands Beach Resort, is primed for ultra-luxury development. At about $13 million per acre, the sale underscores how demand for premium coastal land hasn’t flinched, even with rising rates.

It’s a strong signal that high-end buyers still believe in Miami’s long game — and developers are betting big to meet them there.

And if you assume all those buyers are retired hedge funders… the next story might surprise you.

🎆 HOMESTEAD GOES BIG FOR JULY 4TH

While your neighbor fumbles with sparklers, Homestead is throwing a full-blown Independence Day festival — and it’s free. 🎉

The city’s Race to the 4th celebration returns to Homestead-Miami Speedway with food trucks, live music, a kids’ zone, and one of South Florida’s biggest fireworks shows. Gates open at 6PM, and the fireworks light up the sky at 9PM — launched straight from the infield.

This has become an annual tradition in Homestead, drawing thousands from across the county. If you’re looking for a fireworks show with real horsepower, this is the one.