THE 1% RULE SNAPSHOT · 🏆 Karim's Top 3 Multifamily Picks

Rate assumption: 7.34% (6.71% 30-yr Freddie Mac + 0.625% investment premium). Down: 25%. Expenses: 35%.

🏙️ Karim's Top 3 Condo Picks

Rate: 7.34% | Down: 25% | Expenses: HOA + actual property tax + insurance

🏖️ A Miami Judge Just Cleared an $80M Marina Deal for the Ballot, and a Beloved Bar Might Be Collateral Damage

Photo: Gramps Getaway

Miami-Dade Circuit Judge Lisa Walsh denied an injunction on August 27th that would have kept a Virginia Key marina referendum off the November ballot. Virginia Key LLC, a joint venture between RCI Group and Suntex Marinas, wants a 45-year lease with two 15-year renewal options on 27.62 acres at Rickenbacker and Marine Stadium marinas. The numbers: $80 million in private redevelopment. $2.2 million a year in guaranteed rent, escalating to roughly $204 million over the initial term, plus 6% of gross revenue on top. The developer says that's more than six times what the current operator pays today.

So is Gramps Getaway actually getting displaced? Depends who you ask, and neither side agrees. The lawsuit, filed by the current marina operator, claims the waterfront bar's lease would be terminated if the referendum passes. Not so, says the pro-referendum campaign: Gramps "wouldn't be asked to leave." Former city commissioner Ken Russell didn't wait for an answer, posting on social media asking whether the beloved dive bar's waterfront outpost was about to become a "Mega Mall Yacht Marina," a line that went viral before the ink on Judge Walsh's ruling was dry.

The lawsuit isn't dead, either. It heads to a jury trial in September 2027, more than a year after voters settle the referendum at the ballot box. Whatever Miami-Dade decides November 3rd, the fight over whether the lease terms are fair keeps running underneath it.

🏗️ Reported, Not Confirmed: Ken Griffin and the $700M Wynwood Rumor

Photo: Pexels

The Real Deal reported on August 27th that Moishe Mana is selling the 30-acre Mana Wynwood complex to billionaire Ken Griffin, with the price rumored between $700 million and over $1 billion. That would be a record for South Florida real estate. Should you believe it? Maybe wait for confirmation. In January, the same outlet reported that Griffin and Mana explicitly denied talks of a $700 million version of this exact deal. As of the August reporting, a Griffin spokesperson was still standing by that January denial, even as sources told the outlet the deal was mostly done.

Whether or not this specific deal closes, Griffin's Miami spending is not a rumor. He's put over $1 billion into the city since relocating Citadel from Chicago in 2022: a 54-story, 1.7-million-square-foot headquarters tower going up at 1201 Brickell Bay Drive, on a site he bought for $363 million. He bought out every unit in the 22-story condo building across the street, empty now and waiting on a wrecking ball. He's been shopping for a historic house near the new HQ too. If Mana Wynwood closes, Griffin would own a supertall office tower and a 30-acre arts campus two neighborhoods apart, with an AI campus and a university satellite location reportedly in mind for the second one.

Is that good for Miami? Depends what you think Wynwood is for. A finance billionaire buying the neighborhood's biggest arts venue is either the investment that keeps Wynwood relevant for another decade, or the moment it stops being the neighborhood that made Griffin want to move here in the first place. Both readings are true until the deal actually closes, if it ever does.

💰 The Property Tax Amendment That Cuts Both Ways for Your Fourplex

Amendment 3 goes to Florida voters November 3rd and needs 60% to pass. It does two things at once, per the Pinellas County Property Appraiser's official FAQ on CS/HJR 1F. It raises the homestead exemption on non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. Separately, it cuts the annual assessment cap on non-homestead property from 10% to 5%. Save Our Homes, portability, and the senior and veteran exemptions don't change. It takes effect January 1, 2027, first showing up on your August 2027 TRIM notice.

Why does a homestead exemption matter to a rental property? It doesn't, directly, which is exactly the point. Your fourplex has never had Save Our Homes protection, only the 10% assessment cap (a case for holding: cutting that cap to 5% is a permanent brake on assessed-value growth on the exact asset MMM readers own), but the exemption increase applies only to homesteads, meaning the revenue Miami-Dade loses gets backfilled somewhere (a case for reading next year's budget: millage rates and fees tend to fall hardest on the property that got no exemption at all).

Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava called the measure "deceptive" at a September 2nd press event, and her sharpest line, reported by Local 10, landed straight on MMM's readers: "renters and small businesses would likely end up paying more, even though they never received the tax break." That's her claim, not settled fact. Whether Miami-Dade actually raises millage in response is a 2027 budget decision nobody has made yet.

The dollar figures floating around measure different things, so don't add them up. Miami-Dade's own first-year revenue loss is $359 million. The state legislature's fiscal analysis puts the statewide hit at $4.6 billion in year one, $8.4 billion in year two. Pinecrest alone projects a $15 million loss over five years, more than 60% of its budget tied to property tax.

It passes or fails November 3rd. Either way, you won't see it on a tax bill until November 2027.

📈 Mortgage Rates Went the Wrong Way

Freddie Mac's Thursday survey printed 6.71% on the 30-year fixed, up from 6.66% the week before. The 15-year crossed back above 6%, printing 6.04% versus 5.98%. A year ago both numbers were lower, 6.50% and 5.60%. That's 21 basis points worse than last September on the 30-year, 44 worse on the 15-year.

Does one weekly print matter? Not much on its own. What matters is the direction: this breaks a two-week flat streak, and it's moving the same way as the Fed's own rate-hike signal from two weeks ago. On a $500K loan, the 5-basis-point weekly move is about $16 a month, background noise. The trend it's part of is not.

🎉 Labor Day Weekend in Miami

Photo: Pexels

Inter Miami CF hosts Atlanta United Saturday, 7:30 PM, Nu Stadium. Tickets here.

The Orange Blossom Classic returns to Hard Rock Stadium Sunday, FAMU against South Carolina State, one of HBCU football's oldest showcases. Tickets here.

Until next time. If this issue landed in your inbox and made you look up a listing, forward it to one investor friend who should be reading this too.

Reply to this email if you want me to run the numbers on a specific address you're looking at. I do this every issue and I'll get back to you.

Karim Samy Real Estate Agent d. 407.405.2969 [email protected] karimsamy.keyes.com

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